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Technology Predictions for 2006 and Reflections for 2005
2005 literally took the world by storm. The tragedies of the
Asian Tsunami, the Hurricanes that blew through the US Gulf
Coast and the earthquakes that swallowed parts of Pakistan have
left an indelible mark on 2005. While mother nature cast a
shadow on 2005, it was technology that delivered the impact that
resulted in a huge outpouring of donations. The world was
touched by the human element seen real-time in pictures and
videos. Today's technology was able to deliver the graphical
grittiness that portrayed the nightmares occurring half a world
away.
Technology is usually thought of as impersonal, but something
needs to be recognized; without technology the personal elements
of the 2005 tragedies would not likely have been conveyed to the
extent and timeliness they were. Reflecting on 2005 and looking
forward to 2006, technology will undoubtedly continue play a
significant role in the future both on a personal and impersonal
level.
In 2005 Blogs gave birth to splogs, where senseless web scrapers
generated massive amounts of senseless content. Spam reached a
whole new level, right along side the ethical debate of content
scraping. Copyrights have been stepped on and I foresee a new
host of tools that will emerge to protect content.
SPAM and phishing scams were easier to recognize, but to their
credit, spammers showed off their creativity, finding additional
channels to inundate. From splogs to forum spam, 2005 tech users
saw spam as one of life's continued annoyances. Looking into a
crystal ball, I fear that social bookmarking will become the
spam vehicle of 2006, weakening the value of a collective voice.
Sadly the blog saturation has resulted in web clutter. Due to
increased competition and vast quantities of blogs on free
hosted blog networks services, bloggers competing for audiences
and web traffic will result in significant abandoned content,
cluttering the web with useless ramblings. The ease of blogging
that resulted in saturation will be its downfall. Credibility
will again become important. Journalist, who have suffered from
the blogosphere in 2005, will have a reprieve as credibility
becomes an issue for bloggers. In 2006 web surfers are going to
look for multiple sources to confirm facts, and rely on reliable
respected sources, community content, and collaboration like
Wikipedia is going to suffer and become less relevant in 2006.
While Wikipedia scores well in search, it does not perform as
well with accuracy. The Wikipedia community is haunted by spam
and like DMOZ, it's success will be its downfall. The relevance
of successful community wiki's will fade in 2006.
Cell phones have become personal homing devices, and it is near
impossible to locate a cellular phone that is not capable of
manipulating or taking photos, videos, graphics and text
messages in addition to the traditional voice calls. It is
likely the PDA will become extinct in 2006, as travelers move to
a single multifunction device. In 2007 MP3 players will likely
be a common feature of cell phones.
Wireless growth is still worth noting, as it has moved from
hotspots, to hot zones, to hot cities. Philadelphia and San
Francisco are leading the way as wireless cities in 2006.
What is in store for 2006? Privacy is a hot topic that is not
going to disappear. Google and the US Government are battling a
Big Brother image. Data mining has made the collection of data
meaningful. Anti-Google sentiment is growing. Google has fallen
from grace, while Google has made friends on Wall Street, it has
disappointed surfers who have turned to Yahoo and MSN in growing
numbers. 2006 will likely result heat up the search engine war
with MSN and Yahoo scrambling for marketshare and Google walking
a tightrope with privacy advocates on one end and monopoly
theorists on the other end.
Google wants to make money, and like it or not data, is a
commodity. Google will likely use the data from their various
ventures to develop new technologies and personalize content.
Conspiracy theorists believe that the Google's aggregate data
will also be used to optimize the fees charged for
pay-per-click, influence organic ranking, or worse yet, sold.
Google's growth will continue to motivate privacy advocates and
those in the technology field behind the Attention Truste
movement, to work together, to improve how personal information
and subscription information is used online. I expect we will
see a lot of energy and effort in this area.
Personalized content will be a buzz word for 2006. Whether it is
users selecting Podcasts, iTunes, or purchasing Amazon
recommendations the web is learning how to cater content based
on user selections and choices. Web surfers see personalized
content as regaining control of what they want to watch, see, or
listen to. From Tivo to podcasting, users are taking back
control. Yet when the web serves content that is based on past
surfing habits, who is really in control?
In 2005, marketers were told in no uncertain terms, if they are
not using syndication and RSS, they will not survive. Well, they
have one more chance to get it right. In 2006, marketers must
use RSS as an alternative communication channel. It will no
longer be cutting edge, it will be a must to survive. Web
surfers no longer expect to provide personal information (an
email address) for marketing materials, they expect to have a
choice about how they wish to receive the content.
Vendors selling through affiliate programs lost ground in 2005.
Publishers found the easy money of pay-per-click advertising not
fraught with the inherent problems of affiliate tracking and
cookie-killers. The increase in click-fraud and content scraping
on AdSense sites will even the playing field and make affiliate
programs more attractive in 2006.
The world is getting smaller, and technological advancements has
not only brought us tragedy, but also has opened doors and the
global market is now a viable option for small businesses. I
believe the globalization trend will continue in 2006.
Top 10 Winners Predicted for 2006:
Cyber Security VOIP Attention Data RSS/Syndication
Copyprotection Credibility Privacy Alternative Energy (reusable
fuel, clean energy) Content Filtering VideoTunes (iTunes with
Video)
About the author:
About the Author: Sharon Housley manages marketing for
FeedForAll http://www.feedforall.com software for creating,
editing, publishing RSS feeds and podcasts. In addition Sharon
manages marketing for NotePage http://www.notepage.net a
wireless text messaging software company.
S. Housley
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